Sitting Out The French Election?

With the first round of the French election just over a week away, the race is more unpredictable than ever. Polling shows four candidates — Marine Le Pen, Emmanuel Macron, François Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon — within striking distance of each other, and even seasoned political observers here in Paris say it’s difficult to know which two candidates will advance to the second round.

Those dynamics have created a truly exciting election here — but the downside, as this Politico Europe article notes, might be the high number of voters disappointed in the first round results who sit out the second round entirely.

Conventional wisdom in the French election goes something like this: Marine Le Pen, of the far-right National Front, will advance to the second round but will be defeated because all the non-Le Pen voters will rally behind her opponent. (Right now, it’s looking like that other candidate will be Macron.) But this may not be as accurate as one may think: among supporters of some candidates — especially Mélenchon — there’s a real chance many will stay home if their candidate doesn’t make it to the second round.

Last weekend, I found the same dynamics at play among Fillon voters. At the candidate’s big rally in Paris on Sunday, many supporters were sporting stickers that read “Fillon ou Rien”; or, “Fillon or nothing”. Of the 20 or so Fillon voters I spoke with, many said they couldn’t imagine choosing between Le Pen and Macron and would abstain if those were their options.

Though few observers here expect Le Pen to win the election, the lower turnout rates could work to her advantage and narrow the race ahead of May 7.