Climate Modeling 101

I recently interviewed a Spanish scientist who's an expert on climate change. He regretted that we are not taking the necessary attitudes and implementing the changes we need to mitigate the worst effects of climate change. He said we have the knowledge but are not using it to build a better world.

Then I remembered a sentence from the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy, who, back in 2007, said that if you brought "10 of the best scientists in the world" none of them could "guarantee tomorrow's weather forecast in Seville." He then wondered how someone could predict "what's going to happen in the world in 300 years." 

The Prime Minister's musing is not that stupid. Actually, until today, I didn't know exactly how someone could predict the future climate. I knew there was something known as "climate models," but I was ignorant about their inner working. Well, that's no more.

This article, written by Robert McSweeney (although signed by multiple authors) for Carbon Brief is not only very detailed, but also extremely useful. It is a long article, so it's not a bad idea to bookmark it or save it offline to read it little by little. It can also be used later as a reference.

This is not a story. It's a Q&A session, in which the author lays out 13 questions (some basic, some quite advanced), and looks for answers either in the scientific literature or via interviews. It includes dozens of images, figures and diagrams and even a few videos where the experts explain the idea themselves.

Carbon Brief brings us yet another fantastic example of how to use journalism to educate. And it's just the first of a series of articles, so we have homework this week. I have the feeling I'll recommend this article many times.

(Note: Mr. Rajoy has come to his senses since 2007 and now accepts climate science.)