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Globalization and politics

Vito Laterza
Anthropologist and political analyst
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piqer: Vito Laterza
Thursday, 08 June 2017

What You Need To Know About UK Election Night

Today British people go to the polls to elect their next parliament. The snap election was called less than two months ago by incumbent Prime Minister Theresa May.

Opinion polls show significant variation over the percentages and the seats projected for the two main parties, the right-wing Conservatives and centre-left Labour. People vote their MPs in first-past-the-post constituencies, with no proportional representation. The difference in voting shares between the two main parties usually does not reflect the actual distribution of seats.

The key issue of contention is whether the Tories will secure the absolute majority required to form a government on their own, or if there will be a hung parliament, opening up the possibility of a coalition government.

When will we know? University of East Anglia political scientist Toby James provides a few bits of information you need to prepare for election night.

BBC and Sky News will release IPSOS-Mori's exit poll as soon as the polls close at 10pm UK time. This will give an indication of how the parties have fared, but it is unlikely to put people's minds to rest. Exit polls have been wrong before.

The vast majority of the seats are expected to be announced between 2am and 6am, with a high concentration of results between 3am and 5am. 

It will take much longer to know for sure whether any party will reach the absolute majority of 326 seats, but experts will use models based on early trends to get a sense of where things are going.

James provides a list of 25 battleground constituencies expected to be announced between 2.30am and 4am. All these seats have incumbent MPs from opposition parties. 

If we see a significant number of Tory victories here, it is likely that the Conservatives are set for an enhanced majority and will comfortably form their own government. If not, there remains the possibility of a hung parliament, and we will have to wait until after 7am to get a clear picture.

What You Need To Know About UK Election Night
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