What's Behind The Lack Of Real Progress In NAFTA Talks?

For anyone outside of trade policy spheres, following the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) renegotiation process may seem as boring as watching paint dry. As the third round of negotiations came to an end, however, the underlying fact remains that both Canada and Mexico still are not very sure about what the real end game of the United States is. From here onwards, how the Trump Administration aligns its strategy with its broader Foreign Policy goals will determine the end result. 

Touting Progress in Easy Areas

Mexican Trade Minister Ildefonso Guajardo, U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, and Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland applauded progress made during the latest round of talks in Ottawa. Key advances focused on the non-controversial topic of SME support. They have also made headway on telecommunications, digital trade and state-owned enterprises. 

The underlying truth, however, is that the three countries remain far apart on a few key divisive matters, including arbitration in trade disputes and US content requirements for the auto industry. The US also touched on a measure that could block Mexican produce imports at certain times of the year. The US administration, indeed, is seeking to bring Donald Trump's America First doctrine into the discussion, as it seeks to roll back binding arbitration solutions, which they see as an intrusion on national sovereignty. But the administration is internally divided, and has failed to finalize concrete proposals to address this and other key issues. 

Mexico, meanwhile, opened the way for talks to extend into 2018. Perhaps they are hoping to gain time and clarity about the US' strategy, but they are unlikely to get those.