What Does US Recognition Of Jerusalem As Israel's Capital Mean For The Conflict?

If you are getting lost on the Jerusalem issue, this commentary by Crisis Group will help you understand the scope of the situation.

First, Donald Trump didn't express himself clearly when he recognised Jerusalem as Israel's capital. Was he referring to West Jerusalem only, or also to East Jerusalem? He mentioned locations on both sides, and he did not say anything about Palestinian rights to East Jerusalem but, at the same time, he specifically said that the US is not taking a position on the contested borders.

Because of these ambiguities, many political figures have interpreted Donald Trump's declaration as the recognition of Israeli sovereignty over all of Jerusalem, which violates the international norm of non-recognition.

So far, there have been protests all over the world in support of Palestinians. However, correspondents in Jerusalem say the situation there is rather calm.

According to Crisis Group, Palestinian authorities are reluctant to respond, since the Palestinian questions have been marginalized in global affairs and the Arab world is distracted with other issues. Any dramatic reaction to this provocation would mean a radical change of the political approach. A third Intifada, as some media have rushed to declare, is very much unlikely to happen.

Europe, wedded to the two-state solution, could move to have European governments recognize Palestine, according to the analysts.

Lastly, while the US declaration might sound like a blessing for Israel, over time, it could be a handicap for the negotiations.

The conclusion is that, at this moment, the situation can go two ways. The ambiguity around Trump's declaration leaves a chance to issue a clarifying statement that could help lower the tension, but it could also end up setting back the possibility of a peace agreement, introducing more instability in the region.