West Discreetly Roots For Erdoğan To Win The Referendum, But The Result May Be A Surprise

With Turkey's some 55 million voters in contemplation at the doorstep of the historic referendum, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan doesn't look as self-confident as before. Final polls suggest a neck and neck race, and it looks as if many supporters of his party, AKP, hide their real intent - of voting no - when they go to ballot boxes on Sunday. 

Indications are that many conservatives think that transforming Turkey into a Central Asian one-man rule model is not a very good idea for a country which has been a pluralist democracy for seven decades. 

The maximum powers the constitutional change pledges for him has caused widespread anxiety at home and abroad. 

In this powerful piece, Henri Barkey, a veteran independent observer of Turkey, highlights some hitherto "hidden" pitfalls that show how Turks are at a "point of no return" if they vote "yes". 

If so, Erdoğan would feel completely free to appoint vice presidents and ministers accountable only to him, sidelining parliament. He would have the power to select almost all the top judges. 

But, most importantly, a tiny two-word amendment to the powers of the State Supervisory Board opens the gate to a sheer police state. This presidential body will have the prosecutorial powers over public and private bodies, including unions, business chambers, football clubs and non-profit organizations.

No matter the outcome, there will be a crisis. A “no” vote would result in a trauma within his party, paving the way for a search for alternative leadership. A “yes” vote would simply postpone the reckoning until much later.

And the final point:

European and US leaders who are being maligned by the Turkish authorities are afraid of the potential instability a rejection of the proposal. The western powers are quietly rooting for Erdoğan to win with a convincing majority. 

But the chances are that they, together with the rest of Turkey, may end up being surprised.