Turkey Reclaims The Balkans

Russia and Turkey are taking over the Western Balkans, forcing the European Union to act fast. 

In 2016, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan had his eyes set on Germany for the referendum campaign. Today, ahead of the presidential election on June 24, he is set to hold a controversial rally in Sarajevo. While European countries banned such demonstrations last year, Bosnia is expecting 20,000 expatriate Turks to participate. 

This 'comeback' means that "the bloc will not only have to contend with a more assertive Russia, but also with the growing ambitions of Turkey."

French President Emmanuel Macron has been open about it: "I don’t want a Balkans that turns toward Turkey or Russia." But he has also expressed his concerns about taking a hasty decision: "I don’t want a Europe that, functioning with difficulty at 28 and tomorrow as 27, would decide that we can continue to gallop off, to be tomorrow 30 or 32, with the same rules."

The risk of losing the region to Moscow and Ankara has forced the EU to show a renewed interest in the accession of the 'southern backyard' to the bloc. Last week, EU leaders met their counterparts from Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia for the first time since 2003. 

Meanwhile, Turkey's influence over the Balkans has grown stronger. With Ankara pressing countries to take measures against followers of Fethullah Gülen. 

Turkish officials claim that this move does not compete with the EU's plans in the Balkans, but the concern is there. There are also concerns about what the repercussions will be in terms of political tensions between ethnic groups, and even trade. 

Today's rally in Sarajevo is key to advance how the situation will evolve.