Things Will Get Much Worse In Turkey

Turkey has no longer a connection with the real world. Marc Pierini explained the reason very briefly and with accuracy when he shared his own analysis for Carnegie Europe on Twitter:

"In Turkey things will get a lot worse because this is the logic of conspiracy-based power systems: blame everybody else other than yourself."

Ankara's strategy based on brisk moves against its (former?) allies has failed:

• The United States won't extradite Gülen because in today's Turkey there is no prospect of a fair trial.
• The European Union is refraining from any dialogue with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and European leaders are avoiding new confrontations.
• The Kurdistan Regional Government is still talking to Baghdad.
• And the Russians will not agree to a technology transfer of the S400 missiles purchased by Ankara.

Domestically, the situation is also a disaster.

According to some Turkish experts, "the AKP could be defeated in all three 2019 elections". In this context, the 'international conspiracy' discourse has been used abundantly, damaging Turkey's credibility at home and abroad.