Syria's Civil War Is Ending. But The War For Syria Is Just Beginning

Now in its seventh year, the Syrian Civil War is beginning to pose a new question for analysts and politicians alike, regarding the nature of the conflict itself: at what point can the war no longer be considered a 'civil war'?

The reality of the situation is that conflict has metastasized into something much worse than a civil war between intra-national combatants, and something which is fundamentally much more difficult to solve.

“Just a few years ago, Western policymakers imagined Assad’s victory would be the worst-case scenario for Syria. That now seems quaint.”

At its most basic, the problem is that Syria is now simply playing host to an international war between several countries, each with their own interests and objectives. In 2018, no less than 5 international powers are deeply involved in the conflict, including Israel, Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the United States. Further complicating things, several transnational terrorist groups including Hezbollah, ISIS, and the PKK also have thousands of fighters within the country.

While none of the nation states involved in the conflict are directly fighting, events over the last month have proved just how dangerous the situation is. This article for Buzzfeed News chronicles these recent alarming developments: Israel and the US have conducted massive bombing of Syrian government targets, while Turkey threatens US troops stationed alongside their Kurdish allies. Russia for its part appears overwhelmed by the fluidity of the situation and appears to lack the diplomatic (or military) capacity to stabilize the situation.

Within this environment, there is little chance for peace – indeed the best that many are hoping for is simply to avoid a major shooting war between any of the international powers involved in the country. Meanwhile, average Syrians simply will face more misery.