Is China The Biggest Winner From Trump's Incompetence In Foreign Policy?

Donald Trump has been in office for six months, but the consequences of his incompetence are already apparent, argues Foreign Policy's Stephen M. Walt, who goes on to explain how this is the case in areas of influence increasingly controlled by Canada, Europe, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and China. In his piece, he offers details about the role of the new administration's ignorance about foreign policy, trade, and diplomacy in creating further room for the rise of other global powers.

The case of China, however, offers special attention. As William Norris argues in the Council of Foreign Relations (CFR), "the extremely unbalanced economic relationship that preceded the global crisis helped moderate China’s geostrategic ambitions, as China was so dependent on open markets for its exports that it wasn’t willing to rock the boat".

This has been going on for years. Since the end of the crisis, China has pivoted to growth driven by domestic investment and reduced its dependence on exports, which has freed Xi Jinping's foreign policy hand, CFR's Brad Setser explains.

The question, then, is to what extent has Donald Trump's administration allowed China to increase its influence faster. And while debate may be open on the answer, Walt's Foreign Policy piece points to a few key elements: Trump dropped the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), is walking away from the Paris Climate Accord, and failed to appreciate China's lack of willingness to resolve the North Korea problem. And Trump's approach to trade — and his seeming obsession with reducing trade deficits — may inadvertently be contributing to reducing China's imbalances. Against his wishes, perhaps, he is offering China enough space to act more aggressively to promote its interests abroad.