Has Barzani Gravely Miscalculated The Consequences Of The Kurdish Vote For Independence?

The referendum succeeded in showing that the Kurds, not just in Iraq but in Turkey, Iran and Syria, still yearn for their own state. Paradoxically, the outcome of the poll has demonstrated both the strength of their demand for self-determination and the weakness of their ability to obtain it.

This observation by veteran Middle East observer Patrick Cockburn summarizes the ripple effects of the Iraqi Kurdish vote for independence, and goes further in explaining the new picture which it has presented us. The overwhelming yes vote for independence — 92% — was certainly much more than what it tells us: It unleashes new series of dynamics into the vortex of Iraq and Syria.

Cockburn admits that Barzani and the KRG handled the process of the vote well, and that the smaller actors will have to be assertive, however cautiously, to show that they, too, exist.

The poll was always a dangerous gamble but it is too early to say that it has entirely failed: minority communities and small nations must occasionally kick their big power allies in the teeth. Otherwise, they will become permanent proxies whose agreement with what their big power ally wants can be taken for granted.

There is no doubt that Barzani will cash in the result in emerging as the sole leader of Kurdish nationalism, but may have miscalculated the series of dynamics his move has set in motion. He has put more fuel into the engine of murky political game played by Ankara, Teheran, Baghdad, Moscow and Washington. For example:

The Iranians are paranoid about the possibility that such a state would be an American base threatening Iran. Politicians in Baghdad say that, if the Kurds are serious about self-determination, they would cling onto the oil fields of Kirkuk and be dependent on Turkey through which to export their crude.

There is, surely, much more. Like, for example, Russia gaining more ground. And, in post-ISIS era in the region, next in line will be an Arab–Kurd conflict.