From Caliphate To Caves: The Islamic State’s Asymmetric War In Northern Iraq

The Islamic State may have lost its formerly vast territorial holdings in Iraq, but the group is far from defeated. While it no longer commands major population centres like Mosul, this intensive report by Derek Henry Flood, based on months of fieldwork in central Iraq, reveals that the group is well-positioned to maintain the insurgency it has successfully transitioned to.

Even as the apocalyptic street-by-street battle for Mosul was taking place in early 2017, IS fighters were digging a complex tunnel network in the Hamrin Mountains of northeast Iraq. Aided by the rugged geography and remoteness of the area, IS stockpiled many months' worth of supplies in the area, from which it began to launch raids down into the plains near Tikrit and Hawija as early as mid-2017. The area has proven an effective launching pad for disruptive raids targeting infrastructure and isolated Iraqi government bases, while the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and their allied militias have had little success in dislodging IS militants (or even engaging them in battle).

Diyala province has likewise served as an effective redoubt for the extremist group. IS leadership presciently recognized that the area was too close to Baghdad to be effectively held upon its capture in mid-2014, and almost immediately began preparing for a renewed insurgency from the area. This continues four years later, with the complex sectarian makeup and difficult geography again working in IS's favour.

Unfortunately, anyone who has seen Iraq in the news lately knows the country is anything but able to form a united front against the IS underground. A recent election has focused political energies on the capital and the new government, while an escalating crisis in Basra has diverted elite counterterrorism forces to disperse protests in the south. Iraq seems destined to be mired in problems ripe for IS exploitation for the foreseeable future.