France Averted The Worst, But Can Macron Deliver On Economic And European Reform Promises?

Historian and writer Timothy Garton Ash weighs in on the French election results: Emmanuel Macron's victory over Marine Le Pen means France has avoided the worst possible outcome, but to deliver on reform promises both at home and in Europe will be an uphill battle. He has "a clear understanding of France’s deep structural problems, some good ideas about how to tackle them, a strong policy team, and a deep commitment to the European Union," Garton Ash writes. 

He must address domestic and European reform jointly. As Wolfgang Munchau writes in the FT (paywall), "Without change in the way the eurozone works, the impact of domestic reforms will be limited. And without reforms, he will lack the credibility to push for change at eurozone level." But both are notoriously difficult tasks. 

At home, Macron needs to face the far right – 35% of voters supported Le Pen in the second round – the far left, unions, and part of the political establishment. He also needs to build support across party lines. And sound policies alone will not give liberalism the edge in the fight against populism. The popular revolt Le Pen capitalized on "still has a lot of pent-up anger behind it", Garton Ash notes. 

The battle might prove even harder in Europe. He has proposed a common fiscal policy, a joint treasury, debt sharing, and consolidating the banking union. But Germany is wary of loosening austerity and debt pooling, so he needs to focus on convincing Berlin and his peers to compromise. To do this, he might need to clearly spell out what might happen to the eurozone should his reform program be turned down.