As We Enter 2018: Has Populism Lost Steam Or Is It Gaining Strength?

”The populist wave has crested, soon to abate...” 

Charles Krauthammer's arguments in an op-ed last April may only have been wishful thinking. 2016 was the year when populism reached a peak. In a few months, Britain voted to leave the European Union and Donald Trump was elected President of the US. Then, Poland moved to challenge the European values, and the refugee crisis polarized the EU along lines of populism vs governance based on ethics and morality.

Where are we now, as we enter 2018? Is populism in decline? Has it come to a halt? This is the question two researchers plunged into, to come out with a clearer insight. They set out to construct data of the electoral performances of European populists since 2000. They defined populism as 'a logic of political organization, one that sharply distinguishes between supporters, who are portrayed as the whole of the legitimate people, and opponents, who are cast as the people’s illegitimate enemies.'

Their first finding:

Populist movements had been gradually gaining votes well before the shock year of 2016, and they have continued to do so since. While the average vote share for European populist parties was 9.6 percent in 2000 and 17.2 percent in 2008, for example, it is now 24.6 percent.

Then, they decoded the elements behind the rise:

• Populism is now the predominant form of government in a huge, populous, and strategically crucial part of Central Europe,
• Right-wing populists have not yet led the government in a single Western European country,
• While a populist belt of right-leaning parties has already covered much of Central Europe, a second populist belt of left-leaning parties may one day conquer much of Southern Europe. 

Populists will continue to make significant inroads in countries including Italy, Belgium, and Estonia. The populist wave has not yet crested. Nor is it about to bury us quite yet. But unless we act now, it will keep garnering strength in the years to come.