Can Mapping Data Help Prevent Wars?

Dr. Guo, an academic specialized in communication networks and telecoms who has worked with UNHCR, might have found a way to prevent wars through data.

Recently, I have read different examples of how AI and Big Data can be used in communication for development, or in preventing conflicts. This is just another example, and it makes me wonder what would happen if more efforts were made to prevent conflict?

Dr. Guo discovered that the Islamic State was operating by following the old Silk Road, and wondered about what that might mean. He wrote an algorithm that looked at the connections between towns and cities in the world and found that these connections correlated strongly with data on violence. "Crossroad towns and cities, it suggested, were inherently unstable," the article explains.

Of course, the model is controversial, as it puts more emphasis on geography than on cultural or religious factors (or climate change), which are more often the causes of conflict.

"Dr. Guo is careful not to say that cultural diversity is an inevitable instability factor for societies, but areas with a lot of movement – whether in culture, trade, ideas or people – do appear to correlate with risk."

However, Dr. Guo believes that the finding might help reduce conflict significantly.