Can A Revived Opposition Stop Venezuela’s Authoritarian Slide?

Venezuela has been in crisis mode for years. But recent protests and unrest have resulted in the deaths of at least 22 people, and increased international pressures placed on the Venezuelan government have led to a surge in opposition activity. While it is still unclear how events will unfold, the opposition is currently in much better shape to force Nicolas Maduro's government to compromise, writes David Smilde in World Politics Review (paywall, complimentary access available).

A stronger opposition

Indeed, international pressure on the government gave the opposition a sense that the world is watching and supporting their cause. And their current demands are more than reasonable: they call on Maduro's administration to respect the democratically elected National Assembly and to commit to an electoral calendar. With international leverage, the opposition could broker a reasonable end to the conflict, provided it unites around concrete objectives and behind a single leader.

Another way forward is for the government to run out of money. As it struggles to come up with funds to pay its debt and the state oil company is increasingly unable to maintain its activities, it is crucial that the mobilizations' partial intention is to scare off investors which might offer Maduro a lifeline. 

An end in sight? 

It's likely that Venezuela will continue to be mired in conflict in the near future. But a few things may tilt the balance in a more positive direction. The Guardian editorial said that "there is a sense that a bridge has been crossed. For the first time, demonstrators have included people from the poorer parts of Caracas, the people who were at the heart of the Chavismo project". Venezuelan officials have also spoken against recent power grabs led by Maduro, pointing to a fracture within the government. And increased attention from key international players (the US and Latin America, in particular) might offer the opposition a unique chance to push for an orderly transition.