Scottish Independence Has A Tough Hurdle ... In Madrid

Scotland wants a second vote on independence. The Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) feels cheated after England dragged the rest of the UK outside the EU in the historic Brexit vote. After all, Scotland massively supported the 'Remain' option, so the argument is straightforward: "These are not the conditions we accepted in the first independence referendum. We want to remain in the EU."

But Edinburgh might find a formidable obstacle far to the south of London. According to EU rules, for a new member to join the Union, current members must unanimously approve it. And Spain doesn't even want to hear about it. Period.

But why? Because Catalonia.

As the Catalan pro-independence movement develops, one key question hasn't got a clear answer: Madrid maintains that, if Catalonia left Spain, it would automatically leave the EU. Separatist leaders in Barcelona insist otherwise, saying that the region wouldn't lose membership. The European Commission, when asked, has dodged the question.

The argument is key. Spanish people, generally speaking, are EU enthusiasts. Belonging to the European club is perceived as critical to the economy, and it has massive cultural significance. In Catalonia too. Without reasonable certainty on the outcome of the membership, the independence movement would be severely hindered. Maybe fatally so.

So, as you can see, allowing a Scottish precedent is a no-no for Spain. Still, the SNP needs Madrid's favour, so the chess game is on.

We're in for a fascinating lesson on the true meaning of soft power.