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Neil Hauer is an independent analyst focused on Syria, Russia, and the Caucasus. Based in Tbilisi, Georgia, he served as senior intelligence analyst at The SecDev Group, an Ottawa-based geopolitical risk consultancy, for three years. He is presently engaged primarily on Russia’s role in the Syrian conflict.
Turkey's general election this coming Saturday has produced much more excitement than initially expected. While longtime Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan was (and still is) expected to triumph, a recent surge of popularity for the opposition coalition headed by the CHP and its candidate Muharram Ince has created the very real opportunity the polls will be seriously contested. Against that backdrop, this fascinating look into the mindset of Erdogan and his inner circle as the vote approaches is essential reading.
Erdogan emerges in this piece as a creature of habit, settled into routine after a decade and a half in power: workdays that begin at 8AM and usually don't finish until midnight. His organized habits belie a deeper unpredictability, with diplomats and advisors noting that Erdogan can flip from charm to rage in minutes. Zeynep Sentek and Craig Shaw's research for this piece is superb: conversations with over two dozen of the president's confidants provide an unparalleled window into his increasingly paranoid and uncertain world.
Attempts to generate public enthusiasm for transferring yet more power to Erdogan personally, have been beset by difficulties this time around, owing to an ongoing decline of the Turkish lira. With foreign investors pulling out of the country in droves owing to unclear management and policies, the president's siege mentality has led him to refuse economic statistics and advice he does not want to hear. The president remains focused on grandiose prestige projects of dubious value, such as the proposed Istanbul canal, as he builds his legacy. Riches amassed by him and his family have also irked the public. There is another, more basic problem: after 15 years, few in Turkey can muster much genuine fanfare for more of the same.
And yet the president needs a decisive first-round victory. Should he fail to secure that, few think he will go quietly: severe unrest is likely to accompany any opposition forming. June 24 will be an interesting day.