The Three-Degree World: The Cities That Will Be Drowned By Climate Change

As countries negotiate terms of climate mitigation this week in Bonn, it seems that climate adaptation should be on our minds. 3 degrees Celsius seems an inevitable change, but what does that mean for us? How much sea level rise does 3 degrees warming equate to? Climate Central estimates 275 million people worldwide will be flooded by rising waters. This piece includes interactive maps of 5 coastal cities showing the effect of sea level rise from 3 degrees warming. 

Of all continents, Asia will be hit the hardest. With high population density and long coastlines, various countries in Asia will have the most difficult time with locked-in climate change. "Image modelling shows that swaths of Osaka – the commercial heart of a region whose GDP is almost as big as that of the Netherlands – would disappear beneath the water in a 3C world, threatening the local economy and almost a third of the wider region’s 19 million residents."

Alexandria, Egypt; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; Shanghai, China; and Miami, USA are all included in this article, and they are all in deep trouble. In Alexandria and Rio, many residents are unaware of the flooding they face, and how soon it will come. "In 2012, a report from a team of UK and Dutch scientists declared Shanghai the most vulnerable major city in the world to serious flooding, based on factors such as numbers of people living close to the coastline, time needed to recover from flooding, and measures to prevent floodwater. According to...projections, 17.5 million people could be displaced by rising waters if global temperatures increase by 3C." Miami might just cease to exist. 

Seeing the effects on maps, and where people will be displaced, has a sobering effect. The COP talks being held at this moment in Germany are crucial to how much these maps will become reality. But there is only so much flexibility. Much of this is already certain.