Green Leap Forward: Will China Lead The Climate Fight?

Donald Trump's victory in the last US election foreclosed any hope of Washington leading the battle against climate change. It's not as if Hillary had a comprehensive environmental programme, but at least she wasn't a climate denier. Trump is, and his initial decisions confirm that the US is rejecting its duties as an hegemon: no longer can the world rely on Washington's public goods, security and leadership.

China is the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and there are reasons for pessimism related to the increasing levels of purchasing power of its huge population and the importance of polluting industries in the country. Despite its bad prospects, Beijing might just be up for the job, as Jacob Dreyer convincingly explains in this article for Foreign Policy.

We have been witnessing heavy public investment in renewable energy projects, as well as the closure of polluting industries. Dreyer adds up these internal policies with Beijing's hegemony ambitions to argue that, actually, China could reap enormous benefits from leading a green revolution.

One of these perks has caught my eye. In recent years, China has been losing soft power, both internally as its middle class grows and gains influence, and externally with conflicts in the South China Sea and diminishing economic growth. Its government would be legitimised if it used its traditional top-down approach to policies to deter climate change. Third world countries, which have more to lose from environmental disasters, would flock behind China, and its regional partners would gain from a Chinese economic shift from manufacturing to services. Leading the fight against climate change could give the Communist Party another century of dominance.

As usual in Foreign Policy, data is properly sourced and there are a good number of links to read more.