A Brief History Of Climate Science, Forecast By Forecast

Climate change is uncertain terrain. Like any other discipline that aims to predict the future, climate science relies on incomplete information and has to make assumptions. In this case, it's even harder, as the field of study is new and the tools and available knowledge continuously improve. Not only do we learn new truths almost every month, some of them are potential game changers.

So there's the temptation to think that projections might be wrong. Well, that's true, they might. But it would be even more wrong not to trust them. First, because they're all we have. Second, because they're remarkably accurate.

In this article, Zeke Hausfather reviews 9 projections made between 1973 and 2013, including the five IPCC assessments (the ones that the UN bases its projections and policy on). And they're pretty good so far.

Climate models published since 1973 have generally been quite skillful in projecting future warming. While some were too low and some too high, they all show outcomes reasonably close to what has actually occurred, especially when discrepancies between predicted and actual CO2 concentrations and other climate forcings are taken into account.

The article is a fascinating trip through the evolution of climate science. An excellent explanatory piece on how modelling works, and a good introduction to a number of concepts, such as thermal inertia and climate sensitivity. While its language may be a bit complex for some readers (and this is definitely not an article for the absolute beginner), the abundance of links helps with the most obscure terms.

This is how we've imagined the future for the last 45 years. And that future is, now, our present. So how will it be in 45 years? We still have time to make the worst current forecasts wrong.